By
Matt Elliott www.bettingexchangesecrets.com
One of the best and still little known trading
strategies revolves around favourites drifting in the betting
at the completion of a day’s play when the event will take
more than a day to complete.
Sports such as cricket and golf are notorious
for this, with test match cricket being by far the best. For example,
in test match cricket, you will find that teams which are on top
of the game at the completion of a day’s play are excellent
trading propositions. The vast majority of the time, the price
of the favourite will drift from the time the day’s play
has finished to around two to three hours after that point depending
on liquidity.
For example, you laid the favourite at the completion
of play at odds of 1.5 for $1,000. Now for most punters, $1,000
sounds like a lot of money for a bet. However, keep in
mind that the worst case scenario is that the price will fall
to say 1.45. If that did happen, you could bet $1,034.48
which would lock in a loss of $34.48. So even though you are outlaying
$1,000 your total liability is only $34.48.
If the price moves to 1.55, then we could bet
$967.74 to lock in a profit of $30.65. (This figure has taken
into account commission payable at the 5% maximum rate.) If the
price moved to 1.6, then you would have made a guaranteed profit
of $59.38.
Let’s say that you ‘only’ made
$30.65 for the trade. That is a nice income for probably all of
10 minutes ‘work’. Looking at hourly rates, that would
be $306.50 based on the assumptions above. In reality, it would
be less than this because as much as we would like everything
to go our way, it won’t. You will from time to time have
losing trades and as such it is very important that you have a
stop-loss. That is a point at which you back the team back for
a guaranteed loss if the prices move against you. It is very important
to do this as this is purely a technical trade and you are not
betting on the result of the match but rather the short-term direction
of the prices.
Test cricket is the best sport for this approach
however golf can be good to trade immediately after a day’s
play using the same principles.
If you are wondering how the bet amounts were
derived, the ‘Betting Exchange Calculator’ which is
available to those who purchase ‘The Insider’s Guide
to Betting Exchange Secrets’ is used for perform such calculations.
You can discover more information from the website www.bettingexchangesecrets.com |