Matt Elliott www.bettingexchangesecrets.com
Betfair and other betting exchanges have changed
the way that we think about gambling. Along with the growth of
betting exchanges has been the growth in ‘in-play’
betting. Betting exchanges have changed the way most punters think
about hedging their bets. Previously, to hedge a bet whilst a
sport is being played, one would bet before the game with a bookmaker,
and then bet on the opposition throughout the game if the odds
have moved favourably to guarantee a profit.
But now with betting exchanges, punters are betting
differently. Because of the strict laws in Australia forbidding
betting while an event is underway, many Australians, as well
as other punters around the globe, make their hedge bets before
the event starts, in anticipation of the price moving favourably
throughout the game. This can be illustrated by the following
example. A punter believes that Melbourne Storm ($2.75) will defeat
the Brisbane Broncos ($1.45). A $1000 bet is placed on the Storm
at odds of $2.75 before the start of the game. During the game,
Brisbane’s odds drift out to $3.00, so it is decided to
bet $916.67 on them at this price. This results in a profit of
$833.33 regardless of which team wins. (Exact figures were used
in the example however practically, you would round the bet amounts
if betting with the bookmakers as opposed to Betfair).
Most punters will make the secondary bet at the
start of the game and wait to see what the odds do throughout
the match. But is this the right way to bet? We say it isn’t.
There’s nothing wrong with hedging bets, but let’s
look at the way odds move in sports.
Quite often odds will drastically change throughout
a match because of one event. A bowler might take an important
wicket, a rugby player might make an intercept and score a try,
or a tennis player might break their opponent’s serve near
the end of a set. All these things will cause the odds of a match
to change dramatically. Given the above situation, you decide
to bet on Brisbane, but let’s say that Brisbane have drifted
out to $2.60 because of a Melbourne Storm try. Should Melbourne
score another try, then the odds for Brisbane might hit $3.50.
Of course you have only bet at $3 when $3.50 is now readily available.
A lot of punters will not care about this because they have already
locked in their profit anyway, but the fact is you could have
won significantly more had you placed the bet manually after the
try was scored instead of pre-placing it.
This is probably the biggest reason why there
are a lot of punters who offer odds on both sides whilst a game
is being played. They can lay at odds of $3.00 when really the
price should be more like $3.50. They wait a minute or two, then
simply back the team back for a guaranteed profit. I’ve
seen it happen in cricket quite regularly, where someone hedges
their bets with $10,000 and despite a fall of wicket, the price
of the odds doesn’t change because not all of the $10,000
hedged has been eaten up. It’s money for jam, because you
can lay off the bet within minutes once the prices have settled
So when, and if, you decide to hedge your bet,
it is important that if you are watching the game then place your
hedge bet when the odds cross the pre-determined odds that you
wish to hedge at, instead of placing the bet beforehand. And if
you are one of the people who suggest odds whilst the game is
in play, you will no doubt already know all of this because this
is one of the ways to make a lot of money.