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Betting Exchange Trading Error

By Matt Elliott www.bettingexchangesecrets.com

Betfair and other betting exchanges have changed the way that we think about gambling. Along with the growth of betting exchanges has been the growth in ‘in-play’ betting. Betting exchanges have changed the way most punters think about hedging their bets. Previously, to hedge a bet whilst a sport is being played, one would bet before the game with a bookmaker, and then bet on the opposition throughout the game if the odds have moved favourably to guarantee a profit.

But now with betting exchanges, punters are betting differently. Because of the strict laws in Australia forbidding betting while an event is underway, many Australians, as well as other punters around the globe, make their hedge bets before the event starts, in anticipation of the price moving favourably throughout the game. This can be illustrated by the following example. A punter believes that Melbourne Storm ($2.75) will defeat the Brisbane Broncos ($1.45). A $1000 bet is placed on the Storm at odds of $2.75 before the start of the game. During the game, Brisbane’s odds drift out to $3.00, so it is decided to bet $916.67 on them at this price. This results in a profit of $833.33 regardless of which team wins. (Exact figures were used in the example however practically, you would round the bet amounts if betting with the bookmakers as opposed to Betfair).

Most punters will make the secondary bet at the start of the game and wait to see what the odds do throughout the match. But is this the right way to bet? We say it isn’t. There’s nothing wrong with hedging bets, but let’s look at the way odds move in sports.

Quite often odds will drastically change throughout a match because of one event. A bowler might take an important wicket, a rugby player might make an intercept and score a try, or a tennis player might break their opponent’s serve near the end of a set. All these things will cause the odds of a match to change dramatically. Given the above situation, you decide to bet on Brisbane, but let’s say that Brisbane have drifted out to $2.60 because of a Melbourne Storm try. Should Melbourne score another try, then the odds for Brisbane might hit $3.50. Of course you have only bet at $3 when $3.50 is now readily available. A lot of punters will not care about this because they have already locked in their profit anyway, but the fact is you could have won significantly more had you placed the bet manually after the try was scored instead of pre-placing it.

This is probably the biggest reason why there are a lot of punters who offer odds on both sides whilst a game is being played. They can lay at odds of $3.00 when really the price should be more like $3.50. They wait a minute or two, then simply back the team back for a guaranteed profit. I’ve seen it happen in cricket quite regularly, where someone hedges their bets with $10,000 and despite a fall of wicket, the price of the odds doesn’t change because not all of the $10,000 hedged has been eaten up. It’s money for jam, because you can lay off the bet within minutes once the prices have settled back down.

So when, and if, you decide to hedge your bet, it is important that if you are watching the game then place your hedge bet when the odds cross the pre-determined odds that you wish to hedge at, instead of placing the bet beforehand. And if you are one of the people who suggest odds whilst the game is in play, you will no doubt already know all of this because this is one of the ways to make a lot of money.

 

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This article was authored by betting professional Matt Elliott, author of Betting Exchange Secrets. www.bettingexchangesecrets.com

© Matt Elliott 2006

 


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